U.S. Treasury yields declined on Monday as investors braced for a busy week of economic data, with September’s employment report set to provide key insight into the health of the labor market.
The 10-year Treasury yield slipped more than 4 basis points to 4.145%, while the 2-year yield edged down less than 2 basis points to 3.635%. The 30-year yield fell more than 5 basis points to 4.711%. Yields move inversely to prices, and one basis point equals 0.01%.
According to FactSet estimates, economists expect Friday’s nonfarm payrolls to show 59,000 jobs added in September, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. However, analysts have not ruled out the possibility of a negative reading.
The data could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy, as traders anticipate two additional rate cuts before the end of 2025. “If you saw jobs actually look pretty strong, I think the market might say, ‘Oh no, where are my rate cuts?’ And then if you saw jobs collapse, you would say, ‘Oh no, recession,’” said Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower Investments. She described the employment report as the “pendulum factor” for monetary policy.
The release of the figures could hinge on whether Congress avoids a government shutdown before the September 30 deadline, as lawmakers remain split on a federal funding package.
Other labor market indicators will also be in focus this week, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday and weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday.
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